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2019 NBA Draft Board Tiers 4–5

(Draft Board Tiers 1–3 here)

This is not a mock draft. It’s my big board — a ranking of draft-eligible players roughly in the order I estimate their talent level/usefulness to NBA teams. As a point of emphasis, tiers are more important than rankings within tiers. The tier labels correspond primarily to perceived upside value — as opposed to a player’s floor. Of course, some players will invariably play above or below the tiers as I’ve constructed them. Hopefully, I am within +/- 1 tier when it’s all said and done! I wish I had time to write up more than these little blurbs, but hopefully, my thoughts will be somewhat useful to you — and perhaps, different in some little way from other draft profiles you’ve read. At the end of each prospect blurb I give subjective rankings in the following 10 offensive and defensive categories that I find useful to think about (scale is 1–5 for each):

Offense

• Spacer — ability to space the floor (“gravity”) with shooting off the dribble or on the move.
• Facilitator — ability to run an offense or keep an offense flowing (ball stopping dribble pounders will have low scores here).
• Creator — ability to create shots off the dribble, coming off screens, rolling to the basket, cutting, etc.
• Finisher — ability to finish shots, regardless of shot location (but taking into account relative efficiencies of 3pt vs 2pt, layups vs mid-range, etc).
• Rebounder — should be self-explanatory

Defense

• Stopper — point of attack defense, penetration stopper.
• Protector — rim protector + ability to hold position in paint and keep opposing big men from establishing deep position.
• Exploder — (“play exploder”) ability to deflect passes, create turnovers off-ball, generally wreak havoc on opposing offenses
• Extender — (“play extender”) ability to switch, hard closeouts to the 3pt line, team defense
• Rebounder — self-explanatory

Tier 4 — Starter/High-end Rotation

12 P.J. Washington — Kentucky — 20y9mo

PJ is the prototypical “solid” prospect. I think he tops out as a good — but not great — starter for a team, based on his combination of strength, length, and well, solid skillset for a 4 or small ball 5. David West and Paul Millsap come to mind as optimistic comps — think 95%-ile outcomes.

• Spacer — 3 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 3 Finisher — 3 Rebounder — 4
• Stopper — 2 Protector — 3 Exploder — 3 Extender —3 Rebounder — 4

13 Coby White — North Carolina — 19y4mo

I had Coby quite a bit higher than this for most of the season, but I chickened out. I really like his shooting and creation ability, but at the end of the day, I don’t think I’m convinced that he can be a lead guard on a good team or a starting wing with his limitations on size-wise on defense. I can’t quite get there, totally get it if you can. I will not be mad if he proves me wrong. My gut tells me he tops out as a useful bench scorer.

• Spacer — 5 Facilitator — 4 Creator — 5 Finisher—4 Rebounder — 2
• Stopper — 2 Protector — 1 Exploder — 3 Extender — 2 Rebounder — 2

14 Brandon Clarke — Gonzaga — 22y8mo

I like the idea of Brandon Clarke as a crazy pogostick finisher and weakside rim protecting nightmare for opponents — heck, he might even shoot it eventually — but his severe lack of length — I mean even if he were a wing he wouldn’t be considered long — and near eligibility for AARP just don’t let me push him up much higher than here. He deserves to be good, if that makes any sense, I just don’t fully buy into it.

• Spacer — 2 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 2 Finisher — 5 Rebounder — 4
• Stopper — 4 Protector — 4 Exploder — 4 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 4

15 Bol Bol — Oregon — 19y7mo

You might not have known that Darius Garland is the son of former Warrior Winston Garland, but you almost surely know that Bol Bol also plays basketball. While strength is one of Bol’s weaknesses, he does have legitimate strengths that might offset his, er, weakness. (Note to self, improve sentence construction.) Seriously, though, somewhat like his father Manute who was known for shooting 3’s way before it was fashionable for centers to do so (enabled by the great Don Nelson), Bol the latter possesses a surprisingly high level of basketball skill for a player size. Although his season was shortened by injury (another major concern, but not one I’ll worry about here), he shot 63% TS on 33% USG to go along with a 12.4% BLK rate, which gives some idea how unusual a prospect he is. He can handle the ball and create his own offense better than most wings half his size (not sure that’s even exaggerating). Not the best passer, but not a complete black hole probably. Hopefully. Worth the risk around here.

• Spacer — 5 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 4 Finisher — 5 Rebounder — 5
• Stopper — 3 Protector — 5 Exploder — 3 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 5

16 Cam Reddish — Duke — 19y9mo

I’m not a huge believer in Cam’s upside, but I could certainly see him starting or coming off the bench as a 3&D 4 and helping a rotation eventually. He just doesn’t seem to have much dynamism to his game and I think he’s way overhyped for what he is. He “looks” like a star, whatever that means. Seriously, what do people mean? I get a lot of Harrison Barnes vibes with Cam which scares me. I like his high steal rate, though.

• Spacer — 4 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 2 Finisher — 3 Rebounder — 3
• Stopper — 4 Protector—3 Exploder — 4 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 3

17 De’Andre Hunter — Virginia — 21y6mo

Honestly, take whatever I said about Cam above and apply that to Hunter with a bit less animosity and take out the compliment about steals. Cam is ever so slightly ahead simply by virtue of being younger and, perhaps, being a bit better facilitator. The thing I’ll say for Hunter that I appreciate is he seems to know himself as a player and looks unflappable on the court.

• Spacer — 4 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 2 Finisher — 3 Rebounder — 3
• Stopper — 4 Protector — 2 Exploder — 2 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 3

18 Talen Horton-Tucker — Iowa St. — 18y6mo

One of the few “fat upside” guys in this Draft. THT has a lot of intrigue going for him — a combination of youth, length for the position and high skill floor (ceiling?). This is a high variance prospect. If he gets in bonkers shape and hits on shooting, he might be really good. If not, he could flop. I could easily talk myself into putting him significantly higher, because I do like the bet on ceiling, but man his shot seems so bricky to me. I’ll keep him here.

• Spacer — 3 Facilitator — 4 Creator — 3 Finisher — 3 Rebounder — 3
• Stopper — 4 Protector — 3 Exploder — 4 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 3

19 Matisse Thybulle — Washington — 22y3mo

Welcome to “Crazy Stats” prospect. I really thought Thybulle would test the waters in the 2018 Draft, but he came back for another year for whatever reason. He proceeded to put up even more crazy steals and blocks numbers for a wing. Combination of athleticism, length, and insane anticipation instincts and plays in a system that enabled him to gamble a ton. There’s a lot to be skeptical about with him, but…what if his defense actually does translate and he shoots a bit (his 78% career free throw shooting is encouraging)? That’s a really valuable player obviously. Also, I think he’s an underrated playmaker.

• Spacer — 3 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 2 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 3
• Stopper — 4 Protector — 3 Exploder — 5 Extender — 5 Rebounder — 3

Tier 5 (Rotation Players)

Warning: At this point, my takes will get terser (and probably meaner).

20 Romeo Langford — Indiana — 19y7mo

I like his size, and not doubting his ability to bucket-get, but he’s only going to go as far as his shot and effort on d take him. Hopefully better than Rodney Stuckey.

• Spacer — 2 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 5 Finisher — 5 Rebounder — 2
• Stopper — 2 Protector — 2 Exploder — 3 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 2

21 Kevin Porter Jr — USC — 19y1mo

I like his size, and not doubting his ability to bucket-get, but he’s only going to go as far as his shot and effort on d take him. Hopefully better than Nick Young.

• Spacer — 4 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 5 Finisher — 5 Rebounder —2
• Stopper — 3 Protector — 2 Exploder — 3 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 2

22 Nickeil Alexander-Walker — Virginia Tech — 20y9mo

Better shooting, but worse overall basketball player of the basketball playing Alexander-Gilgeous-Alexander-Walker-Alexander cousins. Do like his length and 3pt shooting potential. Whereas Shai is a wingy-guard, Nickeil seems more like a guardy-wing. Didn’t look as good to me when Justin Robinson was out, which is not surprising given his increased responsibilities.

• Spacer — 4 Facilitator — 3Creator — 3 Finisher — 3 Rebounder — 2
• Stopper — 3 Protector — 2 Exploder — 4 Extender — 4 Rebounder —2

23 Tyler Herro — Kentucky — 19y4mo

We don’t need another Her — sorry, I had to slap myself just now. There’s a good chance Herro will be an elite shooter, and if he turns out to be “next JJ Redick” I’ll look pretty dumb having him this low. The thing is I don’t really see that much other than the shooting (and to be fair, his 3PT% was surprisingly pedestrian given his virtually flawless mechanics). Also, his short arms just seem so limiting on defense for being essentially a small wing. So yeah, call me skeptical. But I totally do get why you might have him higher.

• Spacer — 5 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 3 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 1
• Stopper — 2 Protector — 1 Exploder — 2 Extender — 2 Rebounder — 1

24 Iggy Brazdeikis — Michigan — 20y5mo

Really good size, strength, and length for a wing to the point where he might be considered a big wing or maybe a small ball 4 eventually. He kind of reminds me of Tom Tolbert physically — do you ever get tired of my former Warriors references in these profiles? Defense and playmaking will be concerns, but shooting and motor will keep him in the league somehow.

• Spacer — 4 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 3 Finisher — 3 Rebounder — 3
• Stopper — 2 Protector — 2 Exploder — 2 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 3

25 Cameron Johnson — North Carolina — 23y3mo

Injury concerns and age aside, Cameron Johnson is probably one of the top 3–4 shooters in this class in a vacuum (which is how I’m told they do testing for that). He also has a knack for timely playmaking and “winning”. Some concerns on defense given lack of athleticism, but he does have good length and he’s smart which could help him get by on that end.

• Spacer — 5 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 2 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 3
• Stopper —3 Protector — 2 Exploder — 2 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 3

26 Bruno Fernando — Maryland — 20y10mo

NBA-ready body, efficient scorer and finisher, decent passer for his position, and probably versatile enough to play in different offensive systems. Doesn’t really have an outside shot now, but he’s a great free throw shooter, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s shooting 3’s eventually, which would be huge for his game because he can put the ball on the deck a bit. He’s got a lot going for him, but for some reason, it feels like the whole has been somewhat less than the sum of his parts. Supposedly has a great work ethic, but he doesn’t always seem as tough as he looks on the court. Could definitely see him overachieving his draft position if everything clicks.

• Spacer — 3 Facilitator — 3 Creator — 3 Finisher — 5 Rebounder — 5
• Stopper —2 Protector — 5 Exploder — 3 Extender — 3 Rebounder —5

27 Mfiondu Kabengele — Florida St — 21y10mo

Well, it happened. I was in on Kab early — even starting the Kab thread on RealGM back in January (a fun read btw)— but I think the hype has gotten a bit out of a control. Kab is like “One job; Did it” personified. He’s a big man bucket getter and can do it in a bunch of ways, and he may even end up being a very good shooter. It’s fun to watch Leonard Hamilton inexplicably bring Kab off the bench and unleash him as a bench scorer — and actually, that may end up being his best role in the NBA. He’s not as athletic or mobile as people are telling you. He’s kind of like Thomas Bryant to me, a bit worse on offense probably, but better on defense. Oh, and he’s Dikembe’s nephew. I am contractually obligated to mention that every time I talk about him.

Oh yeah, sorry. I forgot to mention he doesn’t pass. He had 11 assists. This season. Remember: One job. Did it. He will block some shots, so let’s call it Two jobs.

• Spacer — 3 Facilitator — 1 Creator — 4 Finisher — 5 Rebounder — 5
• Stopper — 2 Protector — 5 Exploder — 3 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 5

28 Rui Hachimura — Gonzaga — 21y4mo

https://twitter.com/thecity2/status/1059863662477758464

I think Rui is destined to be a bench scorer/energy big. I will say for the record, I think there’s a decent chance he becomes a 3pt threat. We’re probably looking at a Jabari Parker more or less — to be clear, not a compliment at this point — just don’t pay him like one and you’re fine. Lack of defense and playmaking will keep him from becoming a real star (could be a fake one if he scores enough).

• Spacer — 3 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 3 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 3
• Stopper — 2 Protector — 2 Exploder — 2 Extender — 3 Rebounder — 3

29 Nassir Little — North Carolina — 19y4mo

Ok, folks, I guess we’ve come to the “Don’t overthink it” portion of my board. I thought I was going to be a Nas fan before the season started, but like most everyone else, I was disappointed. Good body and motor, but not much else to hang your hat on. But maybe that’s enough at this point in the Draft. He better bring it on d every night.

Also 77% free throw shooter…maybe there’s a 3pt shooter in there eventually.

• Spacer — 2 Facilitator — 2 Creator — 2 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 4
• Stopper — 4 Protector — 2 Exploder — 3 Extender — 4 Rebounder — 4

30 Shamorie Ponds — St. Johns — 20y11mo

I’ve gone back and forth with Ponds a lot. Is he good enough to be a starting point guard on an average-ish, let alone a playoff team? Most of the time I’m thinking not, but he definitely makes high level plays passing and scoring-wise, and he has the requisite “very high steal rate” to be just intriguing enough that I’m going to take him here. On the other side of 30 in this draft you’re not missing much if he fails — i.e. is just another backup point/combo guard. There’s a small chance he’s more than that, and I guess it’s worth the gamble.

• Spacer — 4 Facilitator — 5 Creator — 5 Finisher — 4 Rebounder — 1
• Stopper — 1 Protector — 1 Exploder — 3 Extender — 2 Rebounder — 1